By Chuck Stephens
HISTORY is repeating itself. Ten years after the Greek armada of a thousand ships arrived at the gates of Troy, there was still a stand-off. The gridlock apparently ended with the Greeks departing and leaving behind a gift – a wooden horse. But under cover of darkness, the Greeks sailed back and were able to finally enter and sack the city. Because inside the horse were some Greek fighters, who opened the city gates in the middle of the night. The same gates that could not be assailed by the Greek forces.
The moral of the story is – don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.
This was a strategy that was not even a “strategic retreat”. It was tactical. But there have been other times when armies pulled back, not in retreat, but to bide their time and to re-group.
For example, King Alfred withdrawing to Athelney in the Somerset marches, under pressure from the superior Danish forces. The Danelaw was expanding and King Alfred had to adapt. He basically invented guerilla warfare. When Hitler was preparing to invade England, there were rumours that Alfred had returned in the form of Winston Churchill to save England in its hour of need.
So why is Israel withdrawing some of its forces from southern Gaza?
First, it could be that their fighters are tired and need a break. It may not be the end of the war, but a “pause”.
Second, the pause coincides with a renewed effort to negotiate the release of hostages. But the pattern to date has been that Hamas rejects the deals. It sounds a bit like Priam, king of Troy. His son Paris had stolen fair Helen from her husband in Sparta – king Menelaus. This triggered the Greek invasion of what is now Turkey. Priam mounted a decade-long defense of his city. But Greek stealth won the day.
Certainly the negotiations going on in Egypt will feel the influence of the IDF’s partial withdrawal from southern Gaza. They are raising the stakes. They are feigning a good offer, perhaps to lull Hamas into slumber like the Trojans.
Third, there are prospects of change in America. But the turn-over there will take time. Biden and Trump are only presumptive candidates at this stage, until the summer conventions. Then the campaigning begins. Then elections in November. If Trump wins, he will only be sworn in at the start of 2025. So Israel may be biding its time? It is surely aware of two things – Trump seems to be making a strong comeback and the Republicans are a better bet to support Israel than the wishy-washy Democrats.
Biden is in a bind because of Muslim voters. For example in Michigan and Wisconsin, states that he needs to win to get a second term. It’s a fact that there are two billion Muslims in the world and only 16 million Jews. So even though Biden has been historically pro-Israel, he has to tread carefully, and Netanyahu knows it. So a strategic retreat could buy time to let the clock run out. Israel’s game at this stage is ball possession.
Also, it has become clear that Israel almost had to choose between getting more hostages back and finishing off Hamas. So even on the home front, it is wise to take it slowly. Not to choose one over the other.
A fourth reason for a “pause” at this stage is that Iran is raging over the loss of two senior generals in Damascus recently. Israel may need to let that cool off before going back into Rafah to finish off the last four or five battalions of Hamas. Nineteen of its twenty-four battalions have been taken out. It is a spent force.
Some prisoners of war held by the IDF have suggested Hamas is imploding. Perhaps Israel will give this process time. Better for it to collapse internally than to lose more kudos by attacking Rafah where Hamas is hiding under a million human shields.
There is a fifth reason as well. By pulling back from Khan Yunis, Israel may be allowing civilians to return there. Who may even consider it safer than Rafah, if they remember the history of Troy. So perhaps thinning out the number of human shields will make the eventual sack of Rafah less messy?
Israel could use humanitarian aid as a Trojan Horse. It could rapidly increase aid deliveries to the north and centre of Gaza as a way to lure citizens out of Rafah. A sort of Marshall Plan, to lull Palestinians into a false sense of security. Then after the final whistle blows, declare some extra time to finish off the remaining brigades hiding in rabbit holes or dressed in civilian clothes. Beware Greeks bearing gifts!
Sixth and last, Hamas could always surrender, but it seems to delusionally hold on to the idea that it can extract some kind of victory from this war. King Priam celebrated the departure of the Greek fleet, but he got quite a hangover the next day – his city was sacked and his life was not spared by the Greeks. First he sought refuge at the altar of Zeus, sort of like Hamas hiding in their tunnel network. But he was finished off by the son of Achilles, Neoptolemus.
The 16 million Jews in the world represent less than 1 percent of the world’s population. Yet 30 percent of the billionaires in the world are Jewish. Saudi Arabia next door is the world’s 18th largest economy, relying heavily on oil. Brought to you by a population of 32 million. Tiny Israel has built a diversified economy that is the 27th largest in the world with a population of only 9 million. Just behind it in 28th place is the United Arab Emirates, also with a population of 9 million.
Qatar is ranked 53rd among the economies of nations, with only three million citizens. It has enabled terrorism to rise in the region to the boiling point. The 28 countries that have never recognized the State of Israel after 75 years since it was created by a United Nations resolution (it is not a colony) are not unlike the coalition of Greek city-states that attacked Troy. But their rise can be attributed to oil, which is carbon unfriendly. So they would be well advised to engage Israel not as a pariah, but as a role-model of democracy and a diversified economy. Qatar should also pay a price for enabling the rise of terrorism, in the aftermath of the war in Gaza. It is not an impartial arbiter in the hostage negotiations, it is complicit.
The author is an activist at the Desmond Tutu Centre for Leadership
