By Don Davis
MANY analysts have predicted potential regional conflicts in 2021. But what makes 2021 different from the past years of rhetoric, contained conflicts, and war forecasts?
Concerning Israel, Israeli politicians and military leadership have discussed the war topic extensively, mass missile strikes and civilian losses, either openly or in selective leaks to the press. Many would argue that military leadership speaking out on record is a major break from the past.
Israel is engaged in constant training and testing in anticipation of massive missile strikes in addition to both technology and armored vehicle methods and conventional foreign soldier assaults.
All these must be weighed in the backdrop of the dramatic rise in anti-Semitic attacks, war crimes investigations, funding to Iran, no nuclear enforcement of Iran, Iran boycott abandonment, China’s $400 billion deal with Iran, and fears of Iran’s completion of their nuclear program.
In the event of a comprehensive, accelerated and excessive buildup of military arms and the retaliation syndrome domed to spiral-out-of-control, the Middle East will be plunged into an all-out war. And, it won’t stop there. Iranian cells and proxies will mercilessly hammer the US and Europe.
Some may feel the situation is under control and dismiss war talk as simply unsubstantiated Israeli paranoia. However, what they don’t factor in is the fact that the Jewish State of Israel is the most unique country in the world, and this is paramount in relation to threats and warfare.
Immediately upon declaration of independence, Israel was attacked by a 7-army coalition of Arab Nations. Despite all odds, Israel survived although the next 70 plus years Israel suffered wars, mini-wars, suicide and terror attacks. Besides, maiming and killing of civilians, assassinations of leaders, overseas bombings, kidnappings, local nationalist murders, and boycotts in the international arena.
Israel is a small country, spread across only 10,762 square miles or 27,869 square kilometers with a population of under 10 million. For north Americans, Israel is about 3,000 square miles bigger than New Jersey. For India, Israel is about 5,000 square kilometers larger than Meghalaya or Manipur. For Europe and Russia, Israel is a little smaller than Albania. For the Middle East, Israel is about 5,000 square kilometers bigger than Kuwait.
Israel is surrounded by countries that have been inhospitable in the past, some others question Israel’s Jewish presence, while a few others are committed to removing Israel from the world map.
Rockets can hit Israel in 15 seconds, and Iran claims their guided missiles will reach Jerusalem in 7 minutes. Kidnapping is a viable fear and terror threats never seem to cease.
For 70 plus years, nearly all Israeli families have been torn apart by the holocaust, war and terror.
Nevertheless despite everything listed above, the worse is Israel’s progressive belief that USA will not protect Israel. That is the most dangerous, destabilizing scenario to conceivably transpire to Israel and the Jews since World War II.
With the combined analytic material of this region’s dire condition and documented history of Israel’s pattern of behavior and actions under threat, it would be a gross miscalculation to underestimate what Israel, and the sitting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will do. And, they will act alone if necessary, without consultation with any government.
The ‘new’ war crimes investigations only make these conditions and stresses worse, since Israel now firmly believes, the courts are against them no matter what Israel does. Therein, Israel has nothing to lose by using any method to attack and defend.
Israel has a well-defined classified Red Line concerning Iran, and it has seamless intelligence to precisely scrutinize it. When that ‘line’ is crossed, Israel will react with overwhelming force. Being a small country and population, surrounded by threats, they cannot afford to err or make blunders in warfare.
Israel is estimated to have around 200 nuclear weapons, enough to level Iran and other hostile nations. And, it is reported that during the Yom Kippur War, when the odds were against Israel, Jerusalem threatened Damascus and Cairo with total devastation.
Netanyahu has proven himself in combat and special operations. He himself has been wounded and lost a brother in special operations. Bibi has internationally shown he is not intimidated in protecting Israel and Jews worldwide (he considers it as his political, consecrated and religious duty). Nor is he shaken by any global circumstances, and he has survived, an astounding, third, ruthless election.
Furthermore, Israel has fearless, war-experienced people, resolve, ingenuity, and brilliant, local and regional multi-faceted intelligence.
Israel is a superpower like USA, Russia and China, in mini-form, but just as lethal, and I don’t think Iran grasps, or has been provided with the appropriate intel of the full extent of Israel’s military global reach and regional supremacy.
Also, when USA, Russia, China or Turkey, puts new technology in the region to watch, protect or assault, Israel does not get flustered. Their customary reaction to any challenge is more like, ‘Oh goodie, new tech or strategies we can test to defeat.’ The Jewish Israeli, in general, is raised, trained, and encouraged to overcome, go around, fool, or conquer whatever obstacle is in their ‘path’. This is also a tangible and proven behavioral fact.
I wonder why Iran would pick a fight with one the most powerful and nuclear equipped armies in the combined Middle East, Africa, and European theater? Why does Iran want to fight an Israeli Army that has been in war and conflicts for more than 70 years? After all, Israel can, based on ongoing combat and counter-terror experience, muster their entire armies (both men and women) quickly, and maintain the highest combat and border ready combat units.
Israel has a Nuclear Triad of air, sea and ground, the most advanced weapons, the only stealth fighter in the Middle East, effective anti-missile systems, decades of combat experience, and skilled male fighters renowned in air (aces), ground and sea.
Likewise, Israel has succeeded in special operations in Iraq, Syria, Uganda, Libya and others. Israel has nearly a 100% success rate in operations (with occasional personnel losses).
In contrast, Iran has not been in war since the 1980s. Iran has no direct experience in warfare, and war has monstrously morphed into a new creature.
Israeli operations include executions, flybys, and cyber-attacks. Israel has the stealth and nuclear muscle to overcome armies, and have defeated Iran’s security features. In the past, many international governments have told Israel destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities cannot be done. But Israel knows they do not need to destroy the facilities when they can simply contaminate the sites so nuclear facilities would have to be abandoned.
One thing nearly all analysts agree with; Iran, will decide their own fate and that of the Middle East, peace or horrid war, but odds and realities are not in Iran’s favor for victory.
