WITH the sobering reality that the United States, European Union and United Nations are not going to proactively prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, the only other course remaining is to envision the realism of what is about to come.
What is alarming are the historical patterns and behavior similarities of the current Iranian regime to the formidable, German and Japanese Axis of World War II.
For example, Iran’s pursuit of weapons of mass destruction, threats of removing Israel (Jews) from the map, no regard for their own Iranian population, exporting worldwide terror by exploiting men, women and children as propaganda, and as barbaric suicidal weapons. (And, the most troubling parallel is that probably nothing decisive will be done to Iran until the region becomes a full-fledged war zone, Israel preempts strikes or both).
The present Iranian government is a weapon obsessed dictatorship determined to create a Middle Eastern empire similar to the Nazis of the Third Reich.
In addition, like the Samurai Warrior mentality of the Imperial Japanese Military, the Iranian administration and military believe they are divine, and therefore commissioned supernaturally by Allah to convert the world.
Moreover, the Iranian leadership will not admit being afraid of either America or Israel.
Iran does not grasp the power of the USA, or that of Israel. Only action promotes respect in the Middle East and the USA has failed miserably in the entire Middle East and North Africa.
For that reason, the Iranian leadership believes Americans are weak, indecisive, fragmented, meaningless talkers, and not capable of crushing them. The invincible Iranian attitude and their delusion of United States have developed into a reckless invitation for war because the Iranian leadership does not comprehend what America (and Israel) will do if severely attacked.
Israel is the only nation that commands some kind of fear and respect in the region but even that has eroded since their politically correct combat performance in the last Lebanon War, and the withdrawal from Gaza.
However, would Israel independently preempt strike Iran (and leave USA scrambling to respond) despite observations from analysts it won’t totally eliminate the nuclear threat? And, if so why?
Based on the current state of affairs I believe there is a high probability Israel will preempt strike according to geographical and demographical factors, proactive and out-of-the-box Israeli mentality, and historically patterns.
Israel does not have large borders. In some places a tank can drive border to border in less than an hour. A rocket or missile can strike in less than six minutes. Thus, Israel must take all threats seriously.
Israel is the only democracy, free living society and religion of Judaism in the Middle East amidst many cruel, self absorbed Arab leaders and radical Muslim extremists. Israel’s 5.8 million Jews are surrounded by potential enemies 240 million strong or greater.
Because the country of Israel is tiny, the population small, they must fight offensive wars, not defensive. Neither does Israel’s infrastructure and population have the capacity to absorb massive strikes or deaths, nor does the Israeli have a mentally to risk such a danger. Unlike other nations, many in Israel are related and most of the Jewish population is within 3 hours drive to the Capital. A high loss of life and damage would instantly be followed by enraged protests against the Israeli leadership.
Also, anyone continually threatened with wars and extermination (as the Israeli is) think and behave in diverse manners. The priorities and logic are different from a non-threatened person. It is a grave mistake to misjudge the resolve and the abilities of a person in a life-threatening position or in this case Israel’s back to the sea with nowhere to go.
Fortunately, Israeli intelligence is still the best in the world in this region and this gives them the edge. Israel can operate alone, they have the technology, secrecy, mindset, and decades of executing successful strategies on their own while being hassled, criticized, monitored and restricted.
The Israeli military prioritize threats, dangers and challenges and security is number one. Because of past painful experiences, Israel plans for the worst-case regional scenarios instead of illusions of what “may happen”. They think step by step, take care of the worst circumstances first, then the second, if it comes to that.
The Israeli military does not operate or think “I can’t, but I can” and will always find a way. They have the resources to successfully destroy, cripple or contaminate all the Iranian facilities. Their worldwide capacity, determination, boldness, creativity, unpredictable and stunning performances function as weapon itself and cast panic on all their enemies.
Lastly, Israel is legendary for attacking when threatened (and both “left” and “right” leaders have made “assault” decisions). After the massacres of World War II all Israeli leadership has not only the responsibility but has the obligation to prevent the slaughter from reoccurring against the Jewish people. Holocaust survivors are part of Israel’s population and their stories of horror are part of Israeli education and culture, in addition to present-day terror attack victims.
Israel will protect itself despite world pressures, threats, collateral damage, and any potential worldwide fallout (and blaming or accusing leadership as warmongers is unfair, particularly if one does not have the responsibility of making the final decision to save or protect an entire nation from threatened annihilation).
Accordingly, based on all the Israeli data, preventing Iran from going nuclear is regarded as a justified and necessary survival tactic.
But if Israel or USA strikes Iran, Iranian terror cells and their military are rumored ready to retaliate, (which might be a bluff because comparatively Iran’s military does not measure up to World War II Japanese and Germany soldier discipline, and civilian support. On the other hand, it would indicate Iran might be more likely to use bio/chemical and nuclear weapons on their opponents whether foreign or national).
Subsequently, a dilemma remains. Attack Iran and risk possible Iranian terror reprisals or do nothing and risk a war-mongering, blackmailing, Iranian empire comprising rogue nations and oil rich nations. Rogue oil rich nations who may cut off oil supplies to the western world. Worse yet, Iran and her rogue nations might initiate a nuclear attack on Israel, Europe or Saudi Arabia.
There isn’t much faith in defusing the situation by sanctions either. If the sanctions didn’t stop Iran from going nuclear, neither will sanctions stop a nuclear armed Iran or their subservient countries from inflicting unbearable actions against anyone they choose.
Furthermore, Russia and China have financial interests and are on friendly terms with Iran. It is not to their benefit to stop Iran from going nuclear. Rather, it would be in their best interest to have an Iranian empire that would give Russia and China oil supplies and partial control of the oil region through proxy. Other fringe benefits would be access and availability to terror cells.
As a result, we cannot count on serious assistance from Russia and China in averting a nuclear armed Iran (or to help with Syria, North Korea, etc). In fact, Russia and China might be secretly wishing for western war confrontation with Iran in order to observe our tactics, increase infiltrations (technical and person), deplete our weapon supplies, our industrial supplies, lessen our influence in the region and inflict casualties.
Besides, Russia and China have almost the same enigmatic, repressive and aggressive governing bodies as Iran.
So, why are we still messing about with Iran?
Will talks and reason perhaps persuade the radical Iranian leadership from developing nuclear weapons? I doubt it but I hope so. All avenues have been undertaken to avert a war.
Yet, from what we know the Iranian nuclear weapons program remains. Indeed, some Intelligence services say Iran will produce their first nuke this August and Israel may preempt strike as early as September.
Meanwhile, the present Iranian administration continues to issue threats, and in the past they defiantly accused the US government as the “world’s only atomic criminal”.
Yes, America is the only country to have used nuclear weapons in war. Beginning with the horrendous terror attack on Americans in 1941, Japan in one event unwittingly provoked the USA into instantaneously changing into a furious fighting machine amid supportive nationalistic news coverage.
During World War II, the Axis was notorious for their atrocities and well documented barbaric treatment of Chinese and Korean civilians, Allied prisoners, Russians, Gypsies and Jews. That terrible war left the Axis nations in ruins, massive civilian casualties, and the surviving Axis leadership imprisoned and executed for war crimes against humanity.
It might be well advised then, that the Iranian leadership should read the history of the United States waging warfare against her enemies. No matter whom the President has been in our battles, decisions were eventually made to protect American lives, country and culture. And, Israel has sworn to never allow another holocaust (which might mean conventional, nonconventional and creative pre-empt strikes).
Except, world chaos is exactly what the religious zealot Iranian leadership believes will usher in their 12th Imam (the final Muslim savior).
Consequently, since the USA, EU and UN are ineffective, I suppose it is also too much to hope that the Iranian government will make the rational decision to scrape their nuclear weapons program in order to prevent a repeat of world-war carnage.
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Don Davis has over 20 years experience in analytic research particularly regarding Israeli, Middle Eastern culture, behavior and historical patterns. Don is based in Israel, from where he monitors and evaluates worldwide information on finance, technologies, industries, and the military/political environment for a US consulting company.