By Don Davis
I’VE had a lot of feedback over the holidays on my previous article in The Christian Messenger concerning the conjecture of recent events in the Middle East.
Particularly after the announced US troop withdrawal from Syria a week after my article was published.
However, my position hasn’t changed.
In addition, I have already published articles on this debate focusing both on US President Donald Trump’s campaign promise, and when there was discussions of the US pulling out of Syria in the beginning of 2018.
Therefore, the prior news coverage of this potential pullout, that is now a reality, should have been no surprise to supporters and adversaries alike.
Principally since Trump is nowadays solidly known for political unpredictability, or what his opposition label as ‘precarious’, and what his supporters dub as ‘politically unconventional’, while asserting that the president is looking out for the people instead of the system.
So, I’ll elaborate on the US/Middle East ambiguity by evaluating supplementary theory and fact.
The theory is (as few know the actual secret agreements): The US promise or guarantee is to protect Israel against annihilation or a nuclear attack. In other words, in the current world situation the US pledges nuclear protection against a nuclear Russian and Iranian assault (or other threatening nations). Not an all-out attack by American ground forces or US troops.
Plus, hypothetically Israel doesn’t need the US ground forces as they have their own, very capable military and alleged nuclear arsenal of some 80 to 200 nukes.
The facts, besides the US maintaining a perennial type of revolving door policy of American forces, material and land/sea/air vehicles in, around or training in Israel, the US sustains fully equipped military services all over this region and beyond for protecting their resources in Israel and the Middle East.
This is on top of the presence of the US Navy’s Sixth Fleet, that has nuclear abilities, which commonly stays in the Mediterranean.
On the other hand, the US doesn’t have to be in the region to strike, primarily because of 24/7 long-range submarine, ship, ballistic missile and stealth bomber capacity.
Now, there has been serious talk of an Iranian confrontation since at least 2012 and prior (read this article, “The Israeli preempt strike that never was”). But, every time war is inevitable, something or someone or both successfully defuses the predictable.
Nevertheless, the level of tensions, weapons, rhetoric and clandestine warfare increases dramatically. As a result, when war eventually does occur, it will instantaneously explode into a horrific panorama of an unpredictable rocket, mortar, and missile ‘killing field’, tearing this region apart, along with anyone in it.
Consequently, if the US suspected Israel was going to attack Hezbollah, Lebanon, Syria or Iran (or vise-versa), America, or in this case Trump, didn’t want the 2,000 troops in the pandemonium and secondary, their equipment to fall into enemy hands.
Moreover, in the anarchy there would be no escape for nearly everyone in Syria. That includes the Russians.
The region will be in mayhem until Israel, which will take a fierce pounding too, uses their full might, backed by US, to end the unmitigated brawl.
I’ve covered extensively why this impending regional war will be traumatic for Israel and in turn far more tragic for their enemies in the articles, “The Russian mirage in the Middle East” and “Middle East in 2012: What lies ahead for Israel?”.
Together with, in the Israeli press, “Out of Syria”, “The Second to Last Israeli War”, and “The Putin-Trump Collision”.
The only provincial positive outlook from the American withdrawal may be, in part, for the Likud Party in Israel, if it is indeed good news.
The stage is still being set in the upcoming Israeli elections with ongoing debates and ‘equivalent public and political retaliation’ for the wannabes, parties and leaders.
Nonetheless, if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu survives the impending legal challenges and scandals, then the US withdrawal from Syria that secures American troops, although undoubtedly making the environment far more uncertain, almost certainly cements a Netanyahu re-election.
Perhaps, in time for the next regional emergency. | More columns by the same writer |
Don Davis is a published Middle East analyst and book author. For more than twenty years most of his research material was client confidential and behavioral related. But many of his abridged reports on current or Israeli subjects have been posted as articles or blogs in The Christian Messenger in India, The Times of Israel, and in American news online. Don is also the book author of ‘The Children of Santiago’ and ‘The Theogonic Resurrections’.