I want to begin with writing that I don’t claim Israel might not get battered severely if they attack Iran.
Indeed, with the widespread Arab turmoil (absurdly called Arab Spring), Islamic Egypt, Gaza terrorization, Hezbollah’s threats, disintegration of Iraq, Jordan’s tightrope, Turkey’s power play and posturing, civil war in Syria (which also has bio and chemical weapons), and the Iranian empire ambitions, there probably will be a regional war even if Israel doesn’t strike Iran.
The combinations of the factors I ascertain create a troubling environment for war in the Israeli region. In fact, in my January 6th 2012 article (and reference in prophecy related article March 10, 2011), I went into various details on how Israel might get traumatically assaulted. In addition, because of the necessity of discretion and respect for the Israeli pubic and military establishment, I withheld elaborating on further possible Israeli preempt strike repercussions.
However, I do want to emphasize that Israel’s accomplishments on preempted strikes are legendary. For example the 1967 Six-Day War, Operation Entebbe, Iraqi nuclear reactor strike, and the Syrian nuclear facility strike. All these produced stunning results and deterrents to date.
Today though, analysts and so-called experts constantly debate whether Israel will attack Iran, and debate if they can do it. How many aircraft will it take? What is the strategy? Will it have adverse effect? What about uniting the Iranians and the region against Israel? Will Israel be crushed? Etc.
Yet, pertaining to past Israeli preemptive strikes, each in their day was considered risky at best, extension beyond means. Nevertheless, the strikes were performed flawlessly with little or no fallout. Why is that?
One very important explanation is Israel cannot afford to fail. Failure is not an option in their unique geographic and demographic predicament because the penalty is too harsh. Israel is not like USA with friendly borders, expansive oceans, non-existent or little homeland direct-war stress, large military, massive budgets, etc. But neither does Israel plan its attacks and campaigns in that manner.
This may be why some western analysts or so-called experts can easily be misguided on Israel’s extraordinary abilities and capacities. They should recall that Israel, even with an arms embargo, survived an attack from the combined Arab armies in 1948.
If Israel does strike, it will be unanticipated with diversity and innovation. The strikes will likely consist of naval, air (including drones), ground and something similar to the blast at the Iranian uranium conversion facility in November of 2011. This was rumored to have destroyed part of the Iranian nuclear program, (if it is truly attributed to Israel).
Another reason for Israel’s success is they know this region, its culture, religion, and the behavior and historical patterns. They have the best intelligence in the area. They are extremely experienced in warfare because of a perpetual conflict with their neighbors for 60-plus years. Israel knows, or can predict, with fair accuracy how the enemy behaves and what the enemy’s prospects and options are. They have previously analyzed if the enemy will be divided or not, will they support the leadership or not. Can they rebuild under duress circumstances or not. What are preempting strike ramifications, and so on.
Israelis as individuals are seasoned fighters, shrewd negotiators and masters of illusions in political and military events. Israel knows its equipment, its own abilities and has no delusions of reality and plans accordingly. They have already determined a nuclear armed Iran is concretely and conclusively unacceptable. And, that is a direct consequence of the failure of the UN, US, EU, and sanctions. As a result, the Israelis have counted the cost of preempt strikes, and in spite of everything regard the military option is the only viable option. Anyone who suggests or predicts otherwise is deluding himself.
Also, Israel knows that chances are slim to none that Iran will begin rebuilding (anytime soon) a destroyed or contaminated nuclear program in lieu of distress, panic, confusion and nervous anticipation of follow-up strikes. As well as, the monumental physical and material challenges such as refinance, leadership, knowledge loss, manpower, coordination, resolve (to begin again), and necessary substances and equipment.
Remember the first Gulf War? People forecasted then a regional war leading into a world war, Muslim uprisings and oil prices going out of control. Plus, the Gulf War was further complicated by over 600 oil wells on fire. They were extinguished in less than a year, and does anyone recall any kind of an oil crunch?
Too many times what analysts and so-called experts predict will happen between Israel and Iran do so from their ‘safe-thinking’ from a safe distance. What do I mean by that?
I believe analysts and so-called experts might have an entirely differently perspective if they were living here in Israel or the region 24/7, or living in Israel since the second Intifada. I would venture to suggest they would think, behave and rationalize circumstances and predictions differently because this would encompass living in part, or their whole life in a county, state, city or neighborhood that had been in a continuous conflict and state of war on their borders since its inception.
Despite all that, businesses thrive, trade flourishes, oil flows, and life goes on through the continual years of rumors, flare-ups and attacks. Nothing comes to a complete stop. A perfect illustration some Americans can identify with is the Cuban missile crisis. USA went ballistic (no pun intended) that Russia (USSR) was transferring nuclear-tipped missiles into Cuba. The US risked global, thermal-nuclear war to get the missiles removed and they didn’t care what the rest of the world thought about what they were doing or how they were going about it.
Nonetheless, many call Israel’s concerns extreme and unfounded. Gee, maybe Cuban missiles weren’t a threat to USA either. Now, that last sentence may be silly but so is the idea that Iranian nuclear arms don’t pose a threat to Israel and beyond. Particularly, since Iran has threatened to ‘wipe Israel off the map.’
Furthermore, forcing Israel to stand-down and not protect themselves is downright reckless and naïve to US national and foreign security, and insulting and humiliating to Israel. If roles were reversed and USA was in the quandary Israel is in, the US probably would have destroyed the Iranian nuclear program at its initiation.
Besides, for decades, including this presidential administration, USA has sworn to protect Israel. Well, time to kick-in. If USA truly does believe Israel can’t do the job then it’s time for USA to step in before it’s too late. But if USA waits for Israel to preempt strike (an excuse to go to war), or for Iran to go nuclear, or buried deeper, that is too late. USA will have no one to blame except itself.
But, this is very important. This US Administration should prevent mistakes made by former Presidents and not interfere or stop the US military from doing their job in war, a complete job. For the most part, the US military knows precisely how to permanently settle the issues (regardless of alleged US Administration pressures to the contrary).
More to the point, and should be of great interest to the present US Administration, is that USA will pay a hefty price for a nuclear-armed Iran (possibly between now and couple of years), or suffer due to an Israeli preempt strike against Iran.
Without going into detail about war consequences, except for the obvious Israeli civilian deaths and US personnel deaths, political fallout alone will mostly likely initiate political and legal disaster on this US Administration and certain officials. Because much of Congress is pro-Israel, large numbers of the US population is pro-Israel, the warning signs were glaring and consistent, and the public outrage from losses of US personnel will be unforgiving.
Look, we know there is no good time for war but I’ll try and explain this as simply as possible. Many people in Israel, and the current Prime Minister and Defense Minister are convinced a nuclear Iran means death to Israel and Israelis, pure and simple (and those two leaders are who worldwide governments need to deal with so it doesn’t matter what anyone says both foreign and domestic). They have calculated that Israel can survive a conventional war, including bio and chemical weapons, but not a nuclear war. So, the risk of a ‘possible’ Middle Eastern regional war is by far the logical choice rather than certain death from Iranian nuclear missiles.
Israel is tiny, surrounded, the region already in chaos, and they won’t tolerate the current state of affairs too much longer. They feel time has run out, and closely monitor the US actions for signs of intervention. Israel knows from regional history that USA has not always backed up their allies in the Middle East, or responds after unacceptable death and destruction (as mentioned in my January 20, 2012 and May 13, 2011 articles).
Subsequently, promising the Israeli administration this or that, or trying to pressure them not to defend themselves means nothing to someone who believes death is at the door. In effect, it makes things worse. For Israel will positively not warn US or anyone what they are doing because of mistrust and fear of losing their edge from news leaks. If Israel does (through US pressures) postpone their carefully planned and synchronized target date, that may have catastrophic results when, out of panic and regret of deferral, at the last moment Israel decides to strike. This may be another reason why Israel has all but publicly begged US to strike Iran. Consequently, if America waits too long, what do the US Administration, advisors and analysts expect is going to happen in this region?
On the other hand, there is an alternative scenario. Israel is not stupid. The US, at least the US military, is neither stupid nor inexperienced in the region. Both have worked together on many projects and clandestine operations, and currently maintain unprecedented communications. Despite that the Israeli and US administration, military and media may speak of disagreement and tensions that may only be smoke and mirrors. Serving, as I alluded to in my January 20, 2012 article, to mislead the Iranians in thinking US and Israel are not in coordination. All the while they could be separately, but uniformly in harmonization preparing for an Iranian assault.
Although, even if USA and Israel are not in agreement, immediately after Israel’s preempt strike against Iran, USA and Israel will be.
Don Davis has over 20 years experience in analytic research particularly regarding Israeli, Middle Eastern culture, behavior and historical patterns. Don is based in Israel, from where he monitors and evaluates worldwide information on finance, technologies, industries, and the military/political environment for a US consulting company.