By Don Davis
Due to the previous American administration’s weak Middle Eastern presence and subsequent regional chaos, the Russian Federation’s reemergence into the provincial fray was expected.
Besides, keeping their obligatory Russian military options open on their warm-water port in Syria, in addition to maintaining close proximity to massive oil rich nations, was a no-brainer. Though, their reasonably quick equipment buildup as well as troop and aircraft pilot involvement was a surprise to some. Certainly not to others.
But in the euphoria of an armed forces comeback, and clamor to play and test weapons and tactics, the Russians may have originally miscalculated crucial potential skirmish realities. And that is; close proximity to Israel has its negatives.
As initially revealed in one of my articles, ‘Out of Syria’, and elaborated here, there are enormous differences between approaching and threatening Israel, and Russian and Russian-related forces entering the Crimea or other ex-Soviet Union countries.
Nonetheless at present Israel does not, openly, treat Russia as an enemy or aggressor, choosing diplomacy rather than quarreling. But Israel is not intimidated by Russia and there are several reasons.
First, this region is home ground for Israel; as a result Israeli intelligence and geographical knowledge is paramount.
Second, Israeli defenders in battle are one mind. This is because they have nowhere else to go, hence fighting on home turf and battling for their lives creates an extreme fighting intensity that is rarely equaled. Plus, their decades of homeland defense against overwhelming odds are tested true. Additionally, Israel’s military and combat mentality is not comparable in any manner or form to Afghanistan or any other country in this region, including Europe. To assume thus is to make a dreadful mistake.
Third, Israel has the same type of weapons as Russia, maybe not as many, but nevertheless, a harsh danger to any foe.
Fourth, Israel knows Russia cannot risk using nukes without the intervention of the US and/or maybe China.
So, this basically leaves conventional warfare as a feasible actuality. However, the last time Israel and Russia met, in the skies in July 1970, Israel prevailed by shooting down five Russian-piloted MiGs without a single Israeli loss.
I believe Russia has not forgotten this aerial confrontation and may have had illusions of grandeur or some kind of planned revenge, particularity with their substantial navy, air force and weapons increase.
Furthermore, some Arab leaders or nations may have the impression Russia will assist in expelling the Jewish Nation from the territory.
Certainly, it is no mirage how formidable and powerful Russia is. If the leadership desires, mass havoc can ensue and engulf the Middle Eastern continent.
Therefore, what brought on the recent stories of Iranian and Hezbollah withdrawal? Plus, the meetings with Israeli leadership?
Is it a legitimate Russian overture to lower the tensions on Israel’s borders? If valid, what formulated this Russian change of strategy? And why?
Did the Russians actually heed pragmatic-disclosures and proposals from Middle Eastern experts and analysts regarding a prospective war with Israel? Possibly thinking-it-through to its conclusions, what a brutal clash with Israel would be like – ending with a tragic scenario for both Israel and Russia.
Or is it a brilliantly planned long-term delusion, eventually giving solid credence to the Russia/Gog and Magog parallels alleged in Ezekiel 39?
Maybe it is authentic friendship. If friendship, it would be more believable if Russia didn’t have an established relationship with Israeli archenemies Dictator Bashar al-Assad and the Iranian regime.
Consequently, no one knows the genuine Russian objective except for a select clandestine few.
In other words, man may scheme, governments plan and militaries prep. All the while numerous analysts like me are closely monitoring and evaluating human behavior and studying persistent shifting regional data while daily trying to present and amend practical theories and realisms.
But it is the Lord who orchestrates, determines and resolutely decrees what occurs in heaven and on earth.
Don Davis is a published Middle East analyst and book author. For more than twenty years most of his research material was client confidential and behavioral related. But many of his abridged reports on current or Israeli subjects have been posted as articles or blogs in The Christian Messenger in India, The Times of Israel, and in American news online. Don is also the book author of The Children of Santiago and The Theogonic Resurrections.