The Israeli preempt strike that never was

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israeli-flag351By Don Davis

I rarely comment on unsubstantiated theories or unconfirmed source reports choosing rather to wait for authentication. But, one such hypothesis has surfaced which may have some merit and at the very least is intriguing.

This came about as analysts and bloggers tried to determine why US President Barack Obama scheduled his long awaited trip to Israel. In particular, why was the president’s visit scheduled for the Jewish holy holiday of Passover? In addition, why come when at the moment the Israeli political parties are trying to form a government?

The second question can easily be explained that the US President’s trip was scheduled well in advance. Although many would argue what is the point coming now without a new government formed? Why not instead cancel and reschedule (unless it is to allegedly annoy the already highly charged political environment).

But, it is the first question that has the most interest of why a high profile visit during Passover was scheduled. This is because over the Passover holiday many devout Jews periodically worship throughout the day and the strict eating restrictions nationwide can cause westerners challenges. Others question if the US President would visit a Muslim country for talks during a religious holiday such as Ramadan.

Consequently, was the planned visit an oversight? I doubt it. Did the president want to combine work with religious observance? Maybe, as in Israel that is a given with the numerous holy sites. But, what kind of religious observance? This specific question has fueled the rumor the president may intend to visit the Temple Mount, and that has already purportedly drawn criticism and warnings from Muslim representations and extremists. It also doesn’t help in suppressing the religious and ‘end times’ buzz that the president may be the king in the Book of Daniel chapter 8 prophecies and in the Book of Matthew 24:15.  The reason is that in the ‘end times’ prophecy, a foreign king or leader will possibly help rebuild the Temple in Israel and then set himself up as a god.

However, if none of the above reasons apply, why then is the president still coming? Many suggest President Obama is coming to demand concessions, intimidate and embarrass Benjamin Netanyahu (as the president believes Netanyahu did to him in Washington DC and on international TV), and supposedly for one more very important objective.  The suspected intent is the president wants to ensure by his personal presence that Israel doesn’t attack Iran in a well planned preempt strike over Passover holiday March 2013.

Some patterns and historical data do give credence to the preempt strike premise. The current government in Israel can order a strike in spite a new government coalition has not been formed, and because of the USA’s current objects may be preferable. Israel attacking on a Jewish holiday may be unexpected (or would have been) and a convenient cover as during Passover many families and individuals are driving all over Israel on visits.

Moreover, it is not an Israeli pattern to wait this long to deal with such a tremendous, severe threat leaving little time for the undetected, follow up or alternative action or strikes.  And, has been rumored for months that the US administration has previously prevented (maybe more than once) an Israeli preempt strike on the Iranian nuclear facilities during 2012.

So, is this theory true or bogus? Is it another attempt to confuse and keep the Iranians (more) paranoid? Or is the US President coming to coordinate a US/Israel strike to take place in the future? We’ll probably not know for sure until more time passes although reports indicate Iran expects Israel to attack soon. Two things will be interesting though. Will President Barack Obama eventually cancel the March trip to Israel if there is no Israeli government coalition agreement, and he gets a no-attack guarantee? Second, if President Obama does come how will he and Prime Minister elect Benjamin Netanyahu interact (since they supposedly strongly dislike each other)?

Furthermore, it will be fascinating to see if Benjamin Netanyahu will form a new government in the next few days or choose new elections. Personal conflict (if it does exist) with the US President may give Netanyahu reason to risk new elections, and with the security threat, may be in his favor to enlarge his party votes.

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Don Davis has over 20 years experience in analytic research particularly regarding Israeli, Middle Eastern culture, behavior and historical patterns. Don is based in Israel, from where he monitors and evaluates worldwide information on finance, technologies, industries, and the military/political environment for a US consulting company.

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