The 2012 Israeli preempt strike on Iran

1994

dateline-israel-newBy Don Davis

AS rumors of preempt strikes and counter-strikes saturate the news I have been continually asked what Israel will do and when. This is a topic I have written about numerous times but first want to mention how Egypt, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas’ uncertainty and relationship with Iran might play a role in this. The recent change in Egypt’s government, the military buildup, the anarchy in the Sinai, Syria’s revolution, chemical and biological weapons, and their threats along with Hezbollah and Hamas threats against Israel might spiral out of control and cause a regional conflict before the Iranian ‘strike issues’ can be fully resolved in the preferred planned Israeli/USA timeline.

Now, concerning a preempt strike. Ideally, the region will be in some kind of controlled chaos and Israel will wait until USA can/will join the strike against Iran. Or maybe the Israeli strike option will be determined at the last moment based on whether the current US president will be elected or not (or concrete information predicting an outcome). Because the mistrust with the current US administration is too great, there is no confidence of American action even at a later date, and the prospect of persecutions from a reelected Obama administration are deemed probable. I’m not even sure if the Obama administration did promise to act on Iran whether it would be enough to convince this Israeli administration. Nonetheless, keep in mind a famous Middle East tactic with allies and enemies alike is to complain and posture until you get what you want or more of something you want.

As to when Israel will strike (if they do). Current dates suggest anytime from now to October 15th or beyond. However, they will strike like they have in all other operations…suddenly. And, if the current USA/Israel political/military disagreements are really true, USA will be the last to know.

Israel can operate alone, they have the technology, secrecy, mindset, and decades of executing successful strategies on their own while being hassled, criticized, monitored and restricted. The politicians in authority have already determined a nuclear armed Iran is concretely and conclusively unacceptable, maybe only weeks away. As a result, they have counted the cost of preempt strikes, and in spite of everything regard the military option is the only viable option. Anyone who suggests or predicts otherwise I believe is deluded.

Still, top US administration officials appear to have difficulty understanding or indentifying with the Israeli resolve to attack, or the concept of starting a major battle campaign. This is further aggravated by the appearance of strong political dislike between the two top US and Israeli officials. This inter-conflict is further complicated by supposed theories of high level Israelis being supported (paid?) by Americans to intentionally discredit an Iranian attack. This might be a real cause in strained USA/Israel relations complicated by a shaken Israeli confidence in USA. This is because of USA’s lack of action in the Iranian protests, Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, Syria’s unending bloodshed, the North Korean nuclear program, and general ignore/ignorance in the regional mayhem.

Another reason Israel will not depend on USA is the lack of urgency and USA’s seemingly reality disconnect from Iranian nuclear empire ambitions (to wipe Israel off the geographical map). People in the Middle East don’t just listen to what is said, but how it is said and what is done. Action is the only thing Middle Easterners respect and moving equipment around or killing a high level terrorist now and then doesn’t count for much. (Israel does that on a consistent basis). Instead, Middle Easterners perceive that USA is not serious nor rushed to prevent a nuclear armed Iran. At least not nearly as serious as when USA mobilized for war when Cuba obtained nuclear missiles. Some believe USA has already accepted a nuclear weapons armed Iran similar to Pakistan and North Korea, particularly since Iran’s not nearby.

Concerning comments that Israelis (or government) have no internal consensus on the Iranian crisis; every nation has internal consensus problems on crises. Besides, it’s easy to condemn when not in actual authority/responsibility. The fact is, the ones who make the ‘attack Iran’ decision, and have the power to make the decision are allegedly in agreement so the ‘other consensus’ is irrelevant.

In addition, Israelis are notorious for acting un-united publicly because unruly debate is considered a highly competitive Israeli sport. But the most important factor is historical behavior and patterns. Those have reflected Israel will attack when threatened. They have never failed to attack when threatened. Israel’s accomplishments on preempted strikes are legendary. For example the 1967 Six-Day War, Operation Entebbe, Iraqi nuclear reactor strike, and the Syrian nuclear facility strike. All these produced stunning results and deterrents to date.

The only variable to the historical Israeli attack data is publicly saying they are going to attack. This is a new dimension to previous stealthy Israeli preempt strikes but allegedly used to get more (stuff), and to urge USA to act or be ready because without a doubt Israel will protect itself from what it believes is an annihilation threat. Keep in mind who will be making the attack decision. The Prime Minister has extensive commando combat experience as well as several of his cabinet officials and none of them want the stigma of being the leaders in office when Iran tries to ‘eradicate’ Israel.

Benjamin Netanyahu has personally participated in battles and anti-terrorists operations, and has been wounded in close range combat. Added to that is a key aspect to Israeli mentality which is their historical drive for survival due to 3000 years of exile and persecution. Starting with the ancient Assyrians, Babylonians and forward to the Holocaust, Israeli culture and tradition is ingrained in their upbringing to protect themselves and their personal rights. Americans can’t identify with this because relentless conflicts and terror attacks are not constantly on their borders or inside their states. Neither have Americans fought millennia cultural revenge wars. The most prevalent worry for the American is work and family. The most prevalent American traditions are, thankfully, family get-togethers, picnics, dinner and football, rather than undesirable, perpetual blood feuds with the neighbors.

Also, Israel knows that chances are slim to none that Iran will begin rebuilding (anytime soon) a destroyed or contaminated nuclear program in lieu of distress, panic, confusion, acute electronic disruptions or power outages, and nervous anticipation of follow-up strikes. As well as, the monumental physical and material challenges such as refinance, leadership (if it still exists), knowledge loss, manpower, coordination, resolve (to begin again), and necessary substances and equipment.

I also strongly disagree with analysts that believe Israel’s policy is incoherent. Every nation’s policies seem incoherent because there are always conflicting views, bad blood between officials and political separations even in a democracy. But, Israel is focused where it counts inside the inter-cabinet and Israel is far from one-dimensional. The combined military/secret services know precisely what they are doing. They are multi-dimensional with the best Intelligence, Secret and Technology/Computer/Communications Services in the region, possibly the world. Their special operations are ongoing, infiltration superior to everyone, and infiltrators and informants at unbelievable levels. If Israel does strike, it will be unanticipated, highly technical using technology extremes with diversity, and innovation.

One very important explanation is Israel cannot afford to fail. Failure is not an option in their unique geographic and demographic predicament because the penalty is too harsh. Israel is not like USA with friendly borders, expansive oceans, non-existent or little homeland direct-war stress, large military, massive budgets, etc. But neither does Israel plan its attacks and campaigns in that manner. Instead, Israelis think and act metaphorically “out of the box”. In fact, for them “there is no box” and westerners still don’t comprehend the full potential of Israeli imagination and achievements combined with their determination forced on them in the violent, volatile region where the future outlook is bleak at best.

But, this doesn’t mean I don’t think Israel will suffer. In theory everything that could happen to Iran could happen to Israel and possibly much more devastation than expected as I have written before and is appropriate to repeat here.

Israel is small and narrow making it an easy target for rockets, guided missiles and/or a combined Arab attack. Based on a report the Arab nations have learned important lessons from the 1967 Six-Day War and the 1973 Yom Kippur War; air superiority is vital even if it is guided missiles, the importance of precise intelligence, the significance of a preempted strike, and the essential nuclear option.

As a result, removing the threat of the Israeli Air Force, having updated and reliable intelligence, a nuclear option (which is Iran’s ambition), and a preempt strike scenario are crucial factors to defeat Israel. That is why some analysts believe Hamas, Hezbollah (for Iran), Al-Qaeda, Syria, Egypt, and Turkey have tested the Israeli military responses and abilities. These foreign nations are also rumored to be recruiting frustrated, disillusioned and willing Arabs living in Israel to allegedly provide information on targets such as individuals (US & Israeli), buildings, roads, institutions, organizations, major infrastructure companies, and defense systems for liquidation. Known in Israel as the Fifth Front or Fifth Column, which can include Arabs referred to as Palestinian, this group seeks to provide real time intelligence in preparation for war against Israel. And, may themselves rise up during conflict to participate in killing and attacks to increase the havoc.

Arabs work as laborers in almost every major infrastructure in Israel including hospitals and private homes. This includes purportedly setting fires in National Forests as use as a weapon. As insiders, they know who is who and exactly how to disrupt and eliminate any threat. In other words generals, politicians, doctors, and anyone thought to be essential in leadership, response and combat crews could be targeted.

Foreign embassies in Israel that represent western countries should be wary, too. Embassies should be careful with any foreign worker because as early as 1998 there were reports of foreign worker collaborations. Foreign workers, many of whom come from countries that have Muslim communities, are known to have formed “mafia-type gangs” and intimidate assault and blackmail their own countrymen and women.

More specifically, Americans and American infrastructure throughout the Middle East must assume they are targets in the Arab attack setting since USA/Israel cooperation appears plausible. Arabs or foreign workers can easily provide information about US infrastructure from Jaffa, East Jerusalem and certain Arab villages near the education facility.

In conclusion about the aftermath, if the Arab mayhem tragically referred to as Arab Spring continues this will be good for Israel if a regional war develops. Nevertheless, if conditions deteriorate further I expect renegade Arab militias, terrorists, Arabs in Israel and possibly organized Arab nation army fighters to try and bring the war into the streets of Israel.

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Don Davis has over 20 years experience in analytic research particularly regarding Israeli, Middle Eastern culture, behavior and historical patterns. Don is based in Israel, from where he monitors and evaluates worldwide information on finance, technologies, industries, and the military/political environment for a US consulting company.

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